The Quickening: Nevada Faces 125 MPH Winds

Winds gusting in excess of 100 mph have downed power lines in northern Nevada, causing power outages for thousands of residents in Reno and wreaking havoc with travel.

The California Highway Patrol closed a stretch of westbound of Interstate 80 north of Lake Tahoe on Tuesday morning after wind flipped a truck on its side.

The National Weather Service said winds topped the 125 mph mark at the Mount Rose Ski Resort between Reno and Tahoe.

About 2,500 people were without power in the Reno area.

Sustained winds of 63 mph were recorded at Reno-Tahoe International Airport, where several flights have been canceled or delayed. A gust of 107 mph was recorded just south of town on U.S. Highway 395.

The National Weather Service

The Quickening: Astrophysicist Says Aliens May Pose Risks

British astrophysicist Stephen Hawking says aliens are out there, but it could be too dangerous for humans to interact with extraterrestrial life.

Hawking claims in a new documentary that intelligent alien lifeforms almost certainly exist, but warns that communicating with them could be "too risky."

The 68-year-old scientist says a visit by extraterrestrials to Earth would be like Christopher Columbus arriving in the Americas, "which didn't turn out very well for the Native Americans."

He speculates most extraterrestrial life will be similar to microbes, or small animals - but adds advanced lifeforms may be "nomads, looking to conquer and colonize."

AP; Reuters; BBC.

The Quickening: Threat Of New, Larger Icelandic Eruption Looms

For all the worldwide chaos that Iceland's volcano has already created, it may just be the opening act.

Scientists fear tremors at the Eyjafjallajokull volcano could trigger an even more dangerous eruption at the nearby Katla volcano - creating a worst-case scenario for the airline industry and travelers around the globe.

A Katla eruption would be 10 times stronger and shoot higher and larger plumes of ash into the air than its smaller neighbor, which has already brought European air travel to a standstill for five days and promises severe travel delays for days more.

Many European flights took to the skies Tuesday for the first time in days, with even Britain's busy airports promising to reopen. London airports were closed during the day Tuesday, and in the evening, officials said they would reopen all U.K. airports Tuesday night. British Airways said it hoped to land two-dozen flights in London from the United States, Asia and Africa.

Cheers and applause broke out as flights took off from Paris' Charles de Gaulle Airport, Amsterdam and elsewhere. German airspace remained officially closed but 800 planes were allowed to land or take off, all flying at low altitude.

But Katla's simmering means the cheers could be temporary.

The two volcanos are side by side in southern Iceland, about 12 miles (20 kilometers) apart and thought to be connected by a network of magma channels.

Katla, however, is buried under ice 550 yards (500 meters) thick - the massive Myrdalsjokull glacier, one of Iceland's largest. That means it has more than twice the amount of ice that the current eruption has burned through -- threatening a new and possibly longer aviation standstill across Europe.

Katla showed no signs of activity Tuesday, according to scientists who monitor it with seismic sensors, but they were still wary.

Pall Einarsson, professor of geophysics at the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Iceland, said one volcanic eruption sometimes causes a nearby volcano to explode, and Katla and Eyjafjallajokull have been active in tandem in the past.

In fact, the last three times that Eyjafjallajokull erupted, Katla did as well.

Katla also typically awakens every 80 years or so, and having last exploded in 1918 is now slightly overdue.

That notion is frightening for nearby villagers, who would have to quickly evacuate to avoid the flash floods that would rip down Katla's slopes. Even last week's eruption generated spectacular cascades of melted water and ice chunks the size of houses when burning gases and molten earth carved through the glacier.

Svenn Palsson, the 48-year-old mayor of the coastal village of Vik, said residents are going over evacuation plans now just in case.

With a population of 300, Vik has been covered in 3 millimeters (0.12 inches) of ash from the Eyjafjallajokull eruption, but the real concern is Katla. Residents would have two to three hours to reach the safety of a shelter if the volcano erupted and caused the ice to melt quickly.

"We have practiced and can do it in 30 minutes," Palsson said.

Other areas around the mountain, however, would have no more than 20 minutes to evacuate, he said.

Katla's substantial ice cap is a major worry because it's that mixture of melting cold water and lava that causes explosions and for ash to shoot into high altitudes. Strong winds can then carry it on over Europe.

So far there have been minor tremors at Katla, which scientists believe to be movements in the glacier ice, but the activity from Eyjafjallajokull is making measurements more difficult to read and an eruption more tricky to predict.

"It is more difficult to see inside Katla," said Kristin Vogfjord, geologist at the Icelandic Met Office.

Her team of geophysicists, based in the capital of Reykjavik, use seismometers and GPS units planted around volcanoes to monitor quakes and the swelling of the land, which can indicate magma reservoirs that are pushing up through the crust. The area around Eyjafjallajokull rose up as much as 3 inches (8 centimeters) in recent months and then contracted slightly following the latest eruption.

Vogfjord says Katla's sensitivity to eruptions at Eyjafjallajokull may have to do with pressure shifts in the Earth's crust that are caused by an eruption's magma flow.

There are no clear answers, however, and even fewer predictions about what the future may hold. Volcano eruptions, like earthquakes, are difficult to predict.

"Katla can start tomorrow or in 100 years, you don't know," said Palsson. "All we can do is be ready."

USGS; Institute of Earth Sciences - University of Iceland.

The Quickening

Volcano Ash Increases Worldwide Flight Cancellations & Chaos

A lingering volcanic ash plume forced extended no-fly restrictions over much of Europe on Saturday, as Icelandic scientists warned that volcanic activity had increased and showed no sign of abating -- a portent of more travel chaos to come.

Scientists say that because the volcano is situated below a glacial ice cap, the magma is being cooled quickly, causing explosions and plumes of grit that can be catastrophic to plane engines if prevailing winds are right.

"The activity has been quite vigorous overnight, causing the eruption column to grow," Icelandic geologist Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson told The Associated Press on Saturday. "It's the magma mixing with the water that creates the explosivity. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be an end in sight."

An expansive cloud of grit hovered over parts of western Europe on Saturday, triggering extended flight bans that stranded people around the globe. Continued volcanic activity could produce more plumes if the weather patterns stay the same.

The Icelandic Meteorological Office said the amount of ash in the plume grew Saturday and that the vast ash cloud is continuing to travel south and southeast. Scientists had planned to fly over the volcano to see how much ice has melted to determine how much longer the eruption could spew ash, but the Icelandic Coast Guard said Saturday's flight had been postponed.

Aviation experts say the volcanic plume has caused the worst travel disruption Europe -- and the world -- has ever seen.

"I've been flying for 40 years but I've never seen anything like this in Europe," said Swedish pilot Axel Alegren, after landing his flight from Kabul, Afghanistan, at Munich Airport; he had been due to land at Frankfurt but was diverted.

Anxious passengers have told stories of missed weddings, graduations, school and holidays because of the ominous plume, which seemed likely to disrupt world leaders' plans to attend Sunday's state funeral for Polish President Lech Kaczynski and his wife Maria in the southern city of Krakow.

So far, delegations from India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, New Zealand and Pakistan have canceled plans to attend the state funeral. President Barack Obama, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and German Chancellor Angela Merkel still planned to attend.

On Saturday, the French prime minister extended the closure of airspace in northern France until Monday morning. British and German airspace is closed until at least 0000 GMT Sunday (8 p.m. EDT Saturday), and British Airways is canceling all short-haul flights to and from London airports Sunday. The Belgian, French and Swiss governments extended their ban until Saturday evening.

Stranded passengers reported the delays were causing financial hardships. Some had to check out of hotels and sleep in the airports.

"I have been staying in a hotel but have now checked out and do not know what I am going to do -- I have limited financial resources here," said Anthony Adeayo, 45, who was due to travel from Britain to Nigeria with British Airways.

Eva Macieyow, 33, said she had been due to depart for Germany with a friend.

"We are a little frustrated," she said. "Last night we thought we had a flight ... but now it has been canceled and we know nothing."

Shoppers were warned Saturday that continued flight bans could spark shortages of imported fresh fruit and vegetables.

"There are no shortages yet, but we may start to see certain ranges affected if this carries on," said Christopher Snelling, head of global supply chain policy for the Freight Transport Association.

Italian aviation authorities were closing airspace in northern Italy on Saturday until midday (1000 GMT; 6 a.m. EDT), with airports in Milan and Venice to close. Spain's Iberia airline is canceling most of its European flights until further notice.

Denmark and Finland's airspace also remained closed, while Norway and Sweden said some air space in the far north could be opened as the cloud moves south. Air space in the central and southern parts of the Nordics was expected to remain closed at least until Sunday afternoon.

Serbia also closed a small strip of its airspace in the north of the country and said it could close more later. Belarus and Ukraine introduced closures and restrictions.

Australia's Qantas canceled all flights to Europe on Saturday, and passengers were being offered refunds or seats on the next available flight. The airline said it was not known when flights would resume. Cathay Pacific was already canceling some Europe-bound flights leaving Hong Kong on Sunday.

"The British Airways telephone message says check the Web site for updates but when you check the site it says call the customer services number," said James Kirkman, 41, who was visiting family in Australia with his two kids. "There's no information. The kids were due back at school on Monday."

Southern Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull (ay-yah-FYAH'-plah-yer-kuh-duhl) volcano began erupting for the second time in a month on Wednesday, sending ash several miles (kilometers) into the air. Winds pushed the plume south and east across Britain, Ireland, Scandinavia and into the heart of Europe.

Authorities told people in the area with respiratory problems to stay indoors, and advised everyone to wear masks and protective goggles outside.

The air traffic agency Eurocontrol said about 16,000 of Europe's usual 28,000 daily flights were canceled on Friday - twice as many as were canceled a day earlier.

U.S. airlines canceled 280 of the more than 330 trans-Atlantic flights of a normal day, and about 60 flights between Asia and Europe were canceled.

The International Air Transport Association says the volcano is costing the industry at least $200 million a day.

Extra trains were put on in Amsterdam and lines to buy train tickets were so long that the rail company handed out free coffee.

Train operator Eurostar said it was carrying almost 50,000 passengers between London, Paris and Brussels. Thalys, a high-speed venture of the French, Belgian and German rail companies, was allowing passengers to buy tickets even if trains were fully booked.

Ferry operators in Britain received a flurry of bookings from people desperate to cross the English Channel to France, while London taxi company Addison Lee said it had received requests for journeys to cities as far away as Paris, Milan, Amsterdam and Zurich.

The disruptions hit tourists, business travelers and dignitaries alike.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel had to go to Portugal rather than Berlin as she flew home from a U.S. visit. Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg managed to get a flight to Madrid from New York but was still not sure when or how he would get back home.

The military also had to adjust. Five German soldiers wounded in Afghanistan were diverted to Turkey instead of Germany, while U.S. medical evacuations for troops in Iraq and Afghanistan are being flown directly from the warfronts to Washington rather than to a care facility in Germany. The U.S. military has also stopped using temporarily closed air bases in the U.K. and Germany.

In Iceland, torrents of water have carried away chunks of ice the size of small houses. Sections of the country's main ring road were wiped out by the flash floods.

More floods from melting waters are expected as long as the volcano keeps erupting -- and in 1821, the same volcano managed to erupt for more than a year.

Iceland, a nation of 320,000 people, sits on a large volcanic hot spot in the Atlantic's mid-oceanic ridge and has a history of devastating eruptions. One of the worst was the 1783 eruption of the Laki volcano, which spewed a toxic cloud over Europe, killing tens of thousands.

Icelandic Meteorological Office; International Air Transport Association; AP; Reuters; BBC World; Sky News; NOAA; UPI; writers Naomi Koppel in London, Geir Moulson in Berlin, Angela Charlton in Paris, Raf Casert in Brussels, Slobodan Lekic in Munich, David Nowak in Moscow and Kwang-Tae Kim in Seoul, South Korea, contributed to this report.

The Quickening

'North Korean software' revealed

Details of a home-grown computer operating system developed by North Korea have emerged. Information about Red Star, as it is known, was made public by a Russian blogger studying in North Korea, who bought the program off the street.

Further analysis by a government institute in neighboring South Korea said the operating system is aimed at monitoring user activity. However, very few North Koreans own a computer or have internet access.

Web content is also heavily censored. It is designed "to control [North Korea's] own information security", a report by South Korea's Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI) said.

"Due to few applicable programs available, Red Star will not even be easily distributed in North Korea," it added.

The Russian blogger, identified only as Mikhail, said Red Star could be bought in Pyongyang for around $5. He has also posted a series of screen shots on his blog.

The operating system represents the determination of North Korea to advance its own computer technology, based on its "Juche" self-reliance philosophy.

The Red Star operating system uses a popular Korean folk song as its start-up music and numbers years using a calendar which starts counting from the birth of state founder Kim Il-sung, making 2010 the 99th year.

It is Linux-based but is heavily influenced by Microsoft with versions of the software giant's Office programs, including several familiar games. It runs only in the Korean language and takes 15 minutes to install, reports said.

It has games, an e-mail system known as Pigeon and a Mozilla's Firefox internet browser - which has the North Korean government website as a home page. The US government has banned the uploading and downloading of open source code to residents of a handful of countries on its sanctions list, which includes North Korea.

The STPI report also said that North Korea has launched a cyber-war unit that targets sites in South Korea and the US. In July last year South Korea experienced a wave of cyber-attacks which attempted to paralyze a number of websites. US websites including the Pentagon and the White House were also targeted.

Reports suggested that the attacks might have originated in North Korea.

Shadow cyber spy network revealed

A "complex cyber-espionage" network that penetrated various organizations including the Office of the Dalai Lama, has been uncovered by researchers.

The shadow network targeted government, business, and academic computers at the United Nations and the Embassy of Pakistan in the US, among others. It was used to steal at least 1,500 emails from the Office of the Dalai Lama, the researchers said.

The attacks were thought to originate in the city of Chengdu in China. Specifically, the researchers, from the Information Warfare Monitor and the Shadowserver Foundation, said they had evidence of "links between the Shadow network and two individuals living in Chengdu".

Information Warfare Monitor comprises researchers from Ottawa-based think tank SecDev Group and the University of Toronto's Munk Centre for International Studies. The individuals were identified by e-mail addresses and are thought to be part of China's "underground hacking community".

The network was outlined in a report called Shadows in the Cloud.

"The social media clouds of cyberspace we rely upon today have a dark, hidden core," said Professor Ron Diebert, director of the Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto's Munk Center, launching the report.

"There is a vast, subterranean ecosystem to cyberspace within which criminal and espionage networks thrive."

He said the network had reached into the "upper echelons of the Indian security establishment" and should act as a "wake up call" to governments to co-operate on cybersecurity. The team said its eight-month investigation showed no "hard evidence" of the involvement of the government of the People's Republic of China,

"An important question to be entertained is whether the PRC will take action to shut the Shadow network down," the report said.

China's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told a press conference that the country was "firmly opposed" to hacking

"We have from time to time heard this kind of news. I don't know the purpose of stirring up these issues," she said.

She added the researchers have not formally contacted China, although the researchers said they had contacted the country's Computer Emergency Response Team (Cert).

"We would expect that kind of statement," said Professor Diebert.

"Have a look at that report and make up your mind whether you think it is groundless."

The researchers said that the network - known as a botnet - exploited social networking and cloud computing platforms, "including Google, Baidu, Yahoo, and Twitter" to infect computers with malicious software, or malware.

This allowed hackers to take control of the PCs of several foreign ministries and embassies across the world. A more complex network of "command and control" computers was used to control the infect computers. In 2009, the team previously exposed GhostNet, a massive network that was found to have infiltrated 1,295 computers in 103 countries. That investigation had started at the request of the Dalai Lama, Tibet's spiritual leader.

The new investigation showed that his office had been targeted again, with more than 1,500 letters sent from the Dalai Lama's office between January and November 2009 recovered by the team.

The researchers said that they had also recovered a number of documents that were in the possession of the Indian government, including two documents marked "secret", six as "restricted", and five as "confidential".

Recovered documents included Canadian visa applications. The team said they had no direct evidence that they had been stolen form Indian Government computers. Instead, they said, the documents may have been stolen after being copied onto personal computers.

In addition, the researchers found evidence that the hackers had targeted the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacifc (UNESCAP). However the team said the hackers had been largely "indiscriminate in what they took".

"The attackers disproportionately took sensitive information but also took financial and personal information," the team said at launch.

The team said the investigation is ongoing.

STPI; Citizen Lab; UNESCAP

The Quickening

North Korea Threatens 'Nuclear Strikes' On South Korea, America

North Korea's military threatened South Korea and the United States on Friday with "unprecedented nuclear strikes" as it expressed anger over a report the two countries plan to prepare for possible instability in the totalitarian country, a scenario it dismissed as a "pipe dream."

The North routinely issues such warnings. Diplomats in South Korea and the U.S. have repeatedly called on Pyongyang to return to international negotiations aimed at ending its nuclear programs.

"Those who seek to bring down the system in the (North), whether they play a main role or a passive role, will fall victim to the unprecedented nuclear strikes of the invincible army," North Korea's military said in comments carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

The North, believed have enough weaponized plutonium for at least half a dozen atomic bombs, conducted its second atomic test last year, drawing tighter U.N. sanctions.

Experts from South Korea, the U.S. and China will meet in China next month to share information on North Korea, assess possible contingencies in the country, and consider ways to cooperate in case of an emergency situation, South Korea's Dong-a Ilbo newspaper reported earlier this month, citing unidentified sources in Seoul and Beijing. The experts will also hold follow-up meetings in Seoul in June and in Honolulu in July, it said.

The North Korean statement today specifically referred to the March 19 newspaper report.

A spokeswoman said the South Korean Defense Ministry had no information.

Gen. Walter Sharp, the top U.S. commander in South Korea, says the possibility of turmoil in the North is of real concern, citing the country's economic weakness, malnourishment in both the military and general population, and its nuclear weapons.

"The possibility of a sudden leadership change in the North could be destabilizing and unpredictable," he said in testimony before the House Appropriations Committee hearing earlier this week.

South Korean media have reported that Seoul has drawn up a military operations plan with the United States to cope with possible emergencies in the North. The North says the U.S. is plotting to topple its regime, a claim Washington has consistently denied.

Last month, the North also threatened a "powerful -- even nuclear -- attack," if the U.S. and South Korea went ahead with annual military drills. There was no military provocation from North Korea during the exercises.

China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. have been trying to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons in six party talks. The North quit the negotiations last year.

The fate of the North's nuclear weapons has taken on added urgency since late 2008 as concerns over the health of leader Kim Jong Il have intensified.

Kim, who suffered an apparent stroke in 2008, may die within three years, South Korean media have reported. His death is thought to have the potential to trigger instability and a power struggle in the North.

Korean Central News Agency; Sky News; BBC; AP.

The Quickening: Social Security To Start Cashing Federal IOUs

The retirement nest egg of an entire generation is stashed away in a small town along the Ohio River: $2.5 trillion in IOUs from the federal government, payable to the Social Security Administration.

It's time to start cashing them in.

For more than two decades, Social Security collected more money in payroll taxes than it paid out in benefits - billions more each year.

Not anymore. This year, for the first time since the 1980s, when Congress last overhauled Social Security, the retirement program is projected to pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes - nearly $29 billion more.

Sounds like a good time to start tapping the nest egg. Too bad the federal government already spent that money over the years on other programs, preferring to borrow from Social Security rather than foreign creditors. In return, the Treasury Department issued a stack of IOUs -- in the form of Treasury bonds - which are kept in a nondescript office building just down the street from Parkersburg's municipal offices.

Now the government will have to borrow even more money, much of it abroad, to start paying back the IOUs, and the timing couldn't be worse. The government is projected to post a record $1.5 trillion budget deficit this year, followed by trillion dollar deficits for years to come.

Social Security's shortfall will not affect current benefits. As long as the IOUs last, benefits will keep flowing. But experts say it is a warning sign that the program's finances are deteriorating. Social Security is projected to drain its trust funds by 2037 unless Congress acts, and there's concern that the looming crisis will lead to reduced benefits.

"This is not just a wake-up call, this is it. We're here," said Mary Johnson, a policy analyst with The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group. "We are not going to be able to put it off any more."

For more than two decades, regardless of which political party was in power, Congress has been accused of raiding the Social Security trust funds to pay for other programs, masking the size of the budget deficit.

Remember Al Gore's "lockbox," the one he was going to use to protect Social Security? The former vice president talked about it so much during the 2000 presidential campaign that he was parodied on "Saturday Night Live."

Gore lost the election and never got his lockbox. But to illustrate the government's commitment to repaying Social Security, the Treasury Department has been issuing special bonds that earn interest for the retirement program. The bonds are unique because they are actually printed on paper, while other government bonds exist only in electronic form.

"This is not just a wake-up call,

this is it. We're here."

Mary Johnson, The Senior Citizens League policy analyst

They are stored in a three-ring binder, locked in the bottom drawer of a white metal filing cabinet in the Parkersburg offices of Bureau of Public Debt. The agency, which is part of the Treasury Department, opened offices in Parkersburg in the 1950s as part of a plan to locate important government functions away from Washington, D.C., in case of an attack during the Cold War.

One bond is worth a little more than $15.1 billion and another is valued at just under $10.7 billion. In all, the agency has about $2.5 trillion in bonds, all backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. But don't bother trying to steal them; they're nonnegotiable, which means they are worthless on the open market.

More than 52 million people receive old age or disability benefits from Social Security. The average benefit for retirees is a little under $1,200 a month. Disabled workers get an average of $1,100 a month.

Social Security is financed by payroll taxes -- employers and employees must each pay a 6.2 percent tax on workers' earnings up to $106,800. Retirees can start getting early, reduced benefits at age 62. They get full benefits if they wait until they turn 66. Those born after 1960 will have to wait until they turn 67.

Social Security's financial problems have been looming for years as the nation's 78 million baby boomers approached retirement age. The oldest are already there. As that huge group of people starts collecting benefits - and stops paying payroll taxes - Social Security's trust funds will shrink, running out of money by 2037, according to the latest projection from the trustees who oversee the program.

The recession is making things worse, at least in the short term. Tax receipts are down from the loss of more than 8 million jobs, and applications for early retirement benefits have spiked from older workers who were laid off and forced to retire.

Stephen C. Goss, chief actuary for the Social Security Administration, says the crisis has been years in the making. "If this helps get people to look more seriously at that in the nearer term, that's probably a good thing. But it's only really a punctuation mark on the fact that we have longer-term financial issues that need to be addressed."

In the short term, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that Social Security will continue to pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes for the next three years. It is projected to post small surpluses of $6 billion each in 2014 and 2015, before returning to indefinite deficits in 2016.

For the budget year that ends in September, Social Security is projected to collect $677 billion in taxes and spend $706 billion on benefits and expenses.

Social Security will also collect about $120 billion in interest on the trust funds, according to the CBO projections, meaning its overall balance sheet will continue to grow. The interest, however, is paid by the government, adding even more to the budget deficit.

The national debt - the amount of money the government owes its creditors - is about $12.5 trillion, or nearly $42,000 for every man, woman and child in the country (see US Current Debt). About $8 trillion has been borrowed in public debt markets, much of it from foreign creditors. The rest came from various government trust funds, including retirement funds for civil servants and the military. About $2.5 trillion is owed to Social Security.

Good luck to the politician who reneges on that debt, said Barbara Kennelly, a former Democratic congresswoman from Connecticut who is now president of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.

"Those bonds are protected by the full faith and credit of the United States of America," Kennelly said. "They're as solid as what we owe China and Japan."

Social Security Administration; Dept of Treasury; US Debt Clock; National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare

The Quickening

Travel on Earth Disrupted by Storms in Space

Airlines are paying extra attention to the weather these days: the weather in space.

That's because more commercial flights are using shortcuts that take them near the North Pole or the South Pole. And in polar regions, flights are vulnerable to cosmic storms that can interfere with communication and navigation systems, or even expose travelers to worrisome doses of radiation.

Last year, there were more than 7,000 polar flights, compared with just a dozen a decade earlier.

Space weather events usually start on the sun, where eruptions or explosions can send a stream of energy and particles hurtling toward Earth. It can take minutes or days for these solar events to affect the Earth.

When solar particles and radiation arrive they are most likely to cause problems at the poles, where the Earth's atmosphere provides less protection. The so-called Northern Lights are a visible sign that particles from the sun are reaching the upper atmosphere.

When the weather in space is bad, you don't want to be in a plane taking a polar route, says Bill Murtagh of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colo.

"The air traffic controller could be talking to the pilot one minute and really, literally within a minute or so, that signal can go from quite clear to scratchy noise," Murtagh says.

Radio interference is just one problem caused by space weather. A burst of energy from a solar flare can knock out GPS navigation systems, Murtagh says. A radiation storm could expose people on a polar flight to the equivalent of a dozen chest X-rays.

Despite the risks, airlines have pursued polar flights aggressively because they let planes fly the shortest path between North America and Asia, or Argentina and New Zealand.

"You're shaving off a couple of hours of flight time, which everyone appreciates," Murtagh says. Passengers reach their destinations sooner and the airlines can save thousands of gallons of fuel.

Most of the growth in transpolar flights has taken place during a period of relatively quiet space weather because the sun has been in an inactive part of its 11-year cycle, Murtagh says.

Right now, the sun is near what's known as the solar minimum, he says. "We're just turning the corner and we'll continue to see an increase in solar activity over the next few years."

With more polar flights each year and the weather in space likely to get worse, it's increasingly likely that air traffic controllers will have to divert flights that are already in the air, says Steven Albersheim, a meteorologist with the Federal Aviation Administration.

The planes won't have enough fuel to complete their trips without an extra stop, Albersheim says. So controllers will have to quickly arrange for them to land at Northern airports in places like Anchorage, Alaska.

Last-minute diversions could be avoided if space weather forecasts were as accurate as their earthbound counterparts, Murtagh says. But they're not.

Terrestrial forecasters have had time to develop good models to predict weather days ahead of time. "We are not there yet with the space models," Murtagh says. "Although we are getting there."

One promising model is being developed by researchers at the Space Weather Prediction Center.

They've developed a model that can predict many solar flares two or three days ahead of time by detecting changes in swirls of plasma beneath the surface of the sun. The swirls twist in a distinctive way before a flare sends a burst of energy toward Earth.

"We can pick up about half depending on how big the flares are," says Alysha Reinard, a member of the research team.

That falls well short of what terrestrial forecasters can do, Reinard says. But she says it's a big step toward protecting planes at the poles from bad space weather.

NOAA; FAA; Space Weather Prediction Center

The Quickening

Solar Storms Could Be Next Big Natural Disaster

A massive solar storm could leave millions of people around the world without electricity, running water, or phone service, government officials say.

That was their conclusion after participating in a tabletop exercise that looked at what might happen today if the Earth were struck by a solar storm as intense as the huge storms that occurred in 1921 and 1859.

Solar storms happen when an eruption or explosion on the surface of the sun sends radiation or electrically charged particles toward Earth. Minor storms are common and can light up the Earth's Northern skies and interfere with radio signals.

Every few decades, though, the sun experiences a particularly large storm. These can release as much energy as 1 billion hydrogen bombs.

The exercise, held in Boulder, Colorado, was intended to investigate "what we think could be close to a worst-case scenario," says Tom Bogdan, who directs the Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder. The Center is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"It's important to understand that, along with other types of natural hazards, (solar) storms can cause impacts," says Craig Fugate, Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), who also took part in the tabletop exercise.

Bogdan and Fugate say that eventually there will be another storm as big as the ones in 1921 and 1859 — a sort of solar Katrina. But the impact is likely to be far worse than in previous solar storms because of our growing dependence on satellites and other electronic devices that are vulnerable to electromagnetic radiation.

In the tabletop exercise, the first sign of trouble came when radiation began disrupting radio signals and GPS devices, Bogdan says. Ten or 20 minutes later electrically charged particles "basically took out" most of the commercial satellites that transmit telephone conversations, TV shows and huge amounts of data we depend on in our daily lives, Bogdan says.

"When you go into a gas station and put your credit card in and get some gas," he says, "that's a satellite transaction."

The worst damage came nearly a day later, when the solar storm began to induce electrical currents in high voltage power lines. The currents were strong enough to destroy transformers around the globe," Bogdan says, leaving millions of people in northern latitudes without power.

Without electricity, many people also lost running water, heat, air conditioning and phone service. And places like hospitals had to rely on emergency generators with fuel for only two or three days, Bogdan says.

In many ways, the impact of a major solar storm resembles that of a hurricane or an earthquake, says Fugate.

But a solar Katrina would cause damage in a much larger area than any natural disaster, Fugate says. For example, power could be knocked out almost simultaneously in countries from Sweden to Canada and the U.S., he says. So a lot more people in a lot more places would need help.

Individuals don't need to make any special preparation for a solar storm, Fugate says. The standard emergency kit of water and food and first aid supplies will work just fine.

"If you've got your family disaster plan together, you've taken the steps, whether it be a space storm, whether it be a system failure, whether it be another natural hazard that knocks the power out," Fugate says.

The Quickening

Iran Moves Closer To Possessing Nuclear Warheads

Iran moved closer to being able to produce nuclear warheads today with formal notification that it will enrich uranium to higher levels, even while insisting that the move was meant only to provide fuel for its research reactor.

The Iranian envoy said he informed the International Atomic Energy Agency of the decision to enrich at least some of its low-enriched uranium stockpile to 20 percent, considered the threshold value for highly enriched uranium.

The envoy also said that the U.N. agency's inspectors now overseeing enrichment to low levels would be able to stay on site to fully monitor the process. And he blamed world powers for Iran's decision, asserting that it was their fault that a plan that foresaw Russian and French involvement in supplying the research reactor had failed.

Western powers blame Iran for rejecting an internationally endorsed plan to take Iranian low enriched uranium and return it in the form of fuel for the reactor - and in broader terms for turning down other overtures meant to diminish concerns about its nuclear agenda.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had already announced Sunday that his country would significantly enrich at least some of the country's stockpile of uranium. Still, Monday's notification to the IAEA was important as formal confirmation of the plan, particularly because of the rash of conflicting signals sent in recent months by Iranian officials on the issue.

Although material for the fissile core of a nuclear warhead must be enriched to a level of 90 percent or more, just getting its stockpile to the 20 percent mark would be a major step for the country's nuclear program. While enriching to 20 percent would take about one year, using up to 2,000 centrifuges at Tehran's underground Natanz facility, any next step - moving from 20 to 90 percent - would take only half a year and between 500-1,000 centrifuges.

Achieving the 20-percent level "would be going most of the rest of the way to weapon-grade uranium," said David Albright, whose Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security tracks suspected proliferators.

The Iranian envoy declined to say how much of Iran's stockpile - now estimated at 1.8 tons - would be enriched. Nor did he say when the process would begin. Albright said enriching to higher levels could begin within a day - or only in several months, depending on how far technical preparations had progressed.

Legal constraints could tie Iran's hands as well. A senior official from a member nation of the 35-country IAEA board said he believed Tehran was obligated to notify the agency 60 days in advance of starting to enrich to higher levels. On Sunday, Iranian officials said higher enrichment would start on Tuesday.

The Iranian move came just days after Ahmadinejad appeared to move close to endorsing the original deal, which foresaw Tehran exporting the bulk of its low-enriched uranium to Russia for further enrichment and then conversion for fuel rods for the research reactor.

That plan was welcomed internationally because it would have delayed Iran's ability to make a nuclear weapons by shipping out about 70 percent of its low-enriched uranium stockpile, thereby leaving it with not enough to make a bomb. Tehran denies nuclear weapons ambitions, insisting it needs to enrich to create fuel for an envisaged nuclear reactor network.

The proposal was endorsed by the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany - the six powers that originally elicited a tentative approval from Iran in landmark talks last fall. Since then, however, mixed messages from Tehran have infuriated the U.S. and its European allies, who claim Iran is only stalling for time as it attempts to build a nuclear weapon.

Even before Iran's formal notification of the IAEA, some of those nations criticized the plan and suggested it would be met by increased pressure for new penalties on the Islamic Republic.

Iran has defied five U.N. Security Council resolutions - and three sets of U.N. sanctions - aimed at pressuring it to freeze enrichment, and has instead steadily expanded its program.

Iran's enrichment plans "would be a deliberate breach" of the resolutions, the British Foreign Office said. In Berlin, Ulrich Wilhelm, the spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, said Germany and its allies were watching developments and were prepared to "continue along the path of raising diplomatic pressure."

Reuters; The AP

The Quickening

China Says It Opposes Obama Meeting With Dalai Lama

China warned President Obama this week not to meet the Dalai Lama, saying any such meeting would harm bilateral relations.

An Obama meeting with the Dalai Lama would "seriously undermine the political foundation of Sino-U.S. relations," said Zhu Weiqun, executive deputy head of the Communist Party's United Front Work Department in charge of recent talks with the exiled Tibetan leader's envoys. Zhu was speaking at a news conference where he said no progress had been made at the talks with envoys of the Dalai Lama on changes to the Himalayan region's status.

The warning to Obama comes after signals from U.S. officials in recent weeks that Obama might soon meet the exiled Tibetan leader - something Chinese officials are keen to avoid before President Hu Jintao travels to Washington, possibly in April.

Zhu said any arguments that the Dalai Lama was just a religious figure were wrong, calling the 1989 Nobel Peace Prize laureate the "head of a separatist group."

No date for Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama has been announced, but White House spokesman Mike Hammer said last month that "the President has made clear to the Chinese government that we intend to meet with the Dalai Lama, it has been his every intention."

Bilateral relations have already been strained by the U.S. announcement Friday that it planned to sell $6.4 billion worth of arms to Taiwan. Beijing quickly suspended military exchanges with Washington and announced an unprecedented threat of sanctions against the U.S. companies involved in the sale. Zhu did not give any details on what China would do if Obama meets the Dalai Lama. "We will take corresponding measures to make the relevant countries realize their mistakes."

Representatives of the United Front meet over the weekend with two Tibetan envoys for their first talks in 15 months, but Zhu said China would discuss only the future of the exiled spiritual leader - not any greater autonomy for Tibet. China maintains that Tibet has been part of its territory for centuries, but many Tibetans say the region was functionally independent for much of its history.

At the last talks in 2008, the Dalai Lama's envoys proposed a way for Tibetans to achieve more autonomy under the Chinese constitution - a key demand of the minority community. But China apparently rejected the plan, saying it would not allow Tibet the kind of latitude granted to the territories of Hong Kong and Macau. Chinese officials said they were only willing to discuss the return of the Dalai Lama, who fled to exile in 1959.

The Tibetan government-in-exile in Dharmsala, India, said last week it hoped the two sides would be able to revisit the proposal for greater autonomy. Beijing demonizes the Dalai Lama and says he seeks to destroy China's sovereignty by pushing independence for Tibet. The Dalai Lama has maintained for decades he wants some form of autonomy that would allow Tibetans to freely practice their culture, language and religion under China's rule, not independence.

Tibetan areas have been tense in recent years, with the minority community complaining about restrictions on Buddhism, government propaganda campaigns against their revered Dalai Lama, and an influx of Chinese migrants that leave Tibetans feeling marginalized. Those feelings boiled over in deadly anti-Chinese riots in 2008 that shocked Beijing's leaders.

Wet Summer, More Demand Could Create Seed Shortage

A poor growing season last year and increased orders from Europe could make it difficult for home gardeners to get seeds for the most popular cucumber variety and some vegetables this spring. Farmers, who usually grow different varieties than home gardeners, aren't likely to be affected.

Seeds for what's known as open-pollinated cucumbers seem to be most scarce, but carrots, snap peas and onions also could be in short supply.

"I suspect there will be some seeds you just won't be able to buy if you wait too long on it," said Bill Hart, the wholesale manager in charge of seed purchasing at Chas. C. Hart Seed Company in Wethersfield, Conn. "The sugar snap peas we're not able to get at all, and other companies that have it will sell out pretty quickly."

The problem is primarily due to soggy weather last year that resulted in a disappointing seed crop. European seed growers also had a bad year, leading to a big increase in orders for American seeds.

Demand for seeds in the U.S. soared last year, as the poor economy and worries about chemical use and bacteria contamination prompted many people to establish gardens. Homegrown food seemed safer and more affordable. But some wonder if the wet weather that ruined gardens in many areas last summer will discourage first-time gardeners from planting again.

"A lot of people are getting into it, but it was a disastrous year for gardens last year because it was so cold and wet," said wholesale seed distributor Mel Brekke, who owns Brekke's Town and Country near Ames, Iowa.

Kathy Gocke of Bondurant, Iowa, said she orders seeds early for herself and her county's master gardener's program and advises others to do the same.

"If you do it before the first of January, they have a pretty good stock," Gocke said.

Burpee Seeds in Warminster, Pa., bills itself as the largest provider of home garden seeds, and Chief Executive Officer George Ball said the company's huge reserves mean it will have plenty of seeds. But Ball said he understands why others might have limited supplies after a big spike in demand in the past two years.

"It was unlike anything I've seen in the past 30 years," he said.

Barbara Melera, owner of D. Landreth Seeds of New Freedom, Pa., expects carrot seeds to be especially hard to find because of big orders from Europe, which had a poor crop last year. Also, fewer farmers are opting to grow seeds, she said. Many now have switched to growing corn for the biofuels industry.

"In this country, farmers who grow things for seed are becoming an endangered species," Melera said. "The farms producing things for seeds is reduced significantly, and in the past two to three years they can get more money for growing corn for ethanol plants than carrots for seeds."

Jennifer Nothwehr, seed coordinator for the Shenandoah, Iowa-based Earl May seed and nursery business, said she hasn't run into shortages, but her company typically orders its seeds from wholesalers a year in advance. They received and packaged the seeds they'll sell this year last fall, and because they set prices last spring, any shortage won't affect them.

Nothwehr also said that while popular varieties, like one known as the straight eight cucumber, may be hard to find, others are available.

"One of the most popular carrots we can't get, but we have four other varieties we can get if a customer wants to try something different," she said.

Hart said his family business has a small retail operation, and he's noticed people coming in earlier than usual this year, possibly because of worries over a shortage of seeds.

Sources: Georgia Agri News; The AP, Wall Street Journal

The Quickening

Two Koreas Fire Artillery Along Coast

North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire along their disputed western sea border on Wednesday, an official said, escalating tensions on the divided peninsula.

North Korea fired about 30 rounds of land-based artillery from its coast, an officer at the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Seoul said.

South Korea, in response, immediately fired about 100 warning shots from a marine base on an island near the sea border, the officer said on condition of anonymity because of department policy.

He said no casualties or damage were immediately reported, and that the North's artillery fire landed in its waters while the South fired into the air.

Top presidential secretary Chung Chung-kil convened an emergency meeting of security-related officials on behalf of President Lee Myung-bak, who was making a state visit to India, according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency. It said Lee was informed of the incident.

The exchange of fire came two days after the North designated two no-sail zones in the area through March 29 in a possible indication it may be preparing to conduct missile tests or other military exercises there. The zones include some South Korean-held waters.

In Washington, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told reporters Tuesday that it was trying to determine precisely what might be behind the North's no-sail zone designation.

"In any kind of declaration like that we would encourage restraint on both sides," Crowley said before the exchange of fire.

The western sea border -- drawn by the American-led U.N. Command at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War -- is a constant source of tension between the two Koreas, with the North insisting the line be moved further south.

Navy ships of the two Koreas fought a brief gunbattle in November that left one North Korean sailor dead and three others wounded. They engaged in similar bloody skirmishes in 1999 and 2002.

The North has sent a series of mixed signals to the South recently.

It offered talks on restarting stalled joint-tour programs and a military dialogue on a joint industrial complex in the North earlier this month. The rival countries are scheduled to hold separate nonmilitary talks on the industrial park in the North Korean border town of Kaesong next week.

But the communist country also has escalated its rhetoric, with leader Kim Jong Il's all-powerful National Defense Commission threatening to attack the South and break off all dialogue over a reported South Korean contingency plan to handle turmoil in the North.

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said last week that his military should launch a pre-emptive strike on North Korea if there was a clear indication that the country was preparing a nuclear attack. The North responded by threatening war.

The two Koreas are still technically at war because the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice, not a formal peace treaty.

From: GlobalSec; WSB

The Quickening

US Gets Failing Grade For Bioterror Response

The President will use his State of the Union address to unveil a new plan for a better and quicker response to bioterrorism threats and attacks, the White House said Tuesday.

The announcement came just hours after the release of a report critical of the government's ability to prepare and respond to bioterrorist attacks.

Obama will be asking government leaders to rethink their plans for medical countermeasures so that quick, reliable and affordable antidotes will be available during any public health emergency, White House spokesman Nick Shapiro said. This would be a redesign of the medical antidote system, he said.

Earlier Tuesday, the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation gave the Obama administration a failing grade for its efforts to prepare for and respond to a biological attack.

In 2008, the WMD was also critical of the government's ability to prepare and respond to a biological attack. The government did respond to that and developed a plan to prevent the illegal spread of biological weapons, such as anthrax. Obama rolled out that plan in November. A month later, Obama signed an order to create a system so that the federal government could rapidly distribute medical countermeasures to supplement state and local responses after a biological attack, Shapiro said. The system relies partly on the U.S. Postal Service's ability to reach every American household.

Obama new plan will mean that better and cheaper drugs will be distributed more quickly, he said. Despite these efforts, the WMD commission said the Obama administration is not addressing urgent threats, including bioterrorism.

"Each of the last three administrations has been slow to recognize and respond to the biothreat," said former Sen. Bob Graham, chairman of the commission. "But we no longer have the luxury of a slow learning curve, when we know al-Qaida is interested in bioweapons."

Retired Air Force Col. Randy Larsen, the commission's executive director, said the government was poorly prepared for the swine flu epidemic in 2009, suggesting that the country is not positioned to respond to something more serious. He pointed to the early shortage of H1N1 vaccine despite a six-month warning from health officials that the disease would be potentially deadly.

The shortage, however, was largely due to private manufacturing problems that the government hopes to alleviate in the future with a different process to make flu vaccine. The government's work to identify the new flu virus and create seed stock for a vaccine quickly has been praised. The WMD commission was formed by Congress to evaluate the government's readiness for a terror attack involving weapons of mass destruction.

Its report follows a study released Monday that warned that al-Qaida is still pursuing technology to conduct a biological, chemical or even nuclear attack against the United States. That study, released by Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, said al-Qaida's "top WMD priority has been to acquire nuclear and strategic biological weapons."

From Harvard University; the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation; The White House

The Quickening

WHO Says H1N1 Pandemic Not Fake

The World Health Organization rejected as irresponsible allegations that swine flu is a fake pandemic.

WHO also dismissed claims it colluded with drug companies to bring economic benefit to the industry by playing up the danger of the new H1N1 influenza strain.

WHO officials will meet with the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe on Tuesday after the watchdog body questioned whether the U.N.'s health agency acted under undue influence.

China Denies Involvement In Google Hackings

China sharply rebuked the United States on Monday, denying involvement in any Internet attacks and defending its online restrictions as lawful after Washington urged Beijing to investigate an attack against Google.

The search engine giant announced on Jan. 12 that it would pull out of China unless the government relaxes its rules on censorship. The ultimatum came after Google said e-mail accounts of human rights activists critical of China had been hacked.

Since then, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has criticized the censorship of cyberspace, drawing a strong counterattack from Beijing. The Foreign Ministry on Friday said her remarks damaged bilateral relations, while a Chinese state newspaper said Washington was imposing "information imperialism" on China.

On Monday, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology went on the offensive again, saying the country's anti-hacking policy is transparent and consistent.

"Any accusation that the Chinese government participated in cyberattacks, either in an explicit or indirect way, is groundless and aims to discredit China," an unidentified ministry spokesman said, according to a transcript of an interview with the official Xinhua News Agency posted on the ministry's Web site.

The increasingly heated environment is likely to pose challenges to negotiating an arrangement that would suit both Google's and China's interests. The company says it remains optimistic it can persuade China's ruling party to loosen restrictions on free expression on the Internet, so it can keep doing business in the country. However, China's government has given little indication it's willing to budge.

The Communist Party's official People's Daily newspaper also accused the U.S. government of strictly controlling the Internet at home on Monday while urging other countries to build an "Internet freedom utopia."

"In reality, this 'Internet freedom' that it is marketing everywhere is nothing but a diplomatic strategy, and only an illusion of freedom," the paper said.

Xinhua also cited the State Council, China's Cabinet, as criticizing what it called interference in the country's domestic affairs. Internet control is considered a critical matter of state security in China. Beijing promotes Internet use for commerce, but heavily censors content it deems pornographic, anti-social or politically subversive and blocks many foreign news and social media sites, including Twitter and Facebook, and the popular video-sharing site YouTube.

Google said it had uncovered a computer attack that tried to plunder its software coding and the Gmail accounts of human rights activists protesting Chinese policies. The company traced the attacks on its computers to hackers in China, but hasn't directly tied them to the Chinese government or its agents.

A Chinese Internet security official questioned the allegation, saying Google had not reported its complaints to China's National Computer Network Emergency Response Technical Team.

"We have been hoping that Google will contact us so that we could have details on this issue and provide them help if necessary," Zhou Yonglin, the team's deputy chief of operations, said in an interview with Xinhua posted on the team's Web site.

Zhou said the team logged attacks on 262,000 Chinese computers last year by hackers implanting malicious software such as Trojans, which can allow outside access to the target's computer. More than 16 percent of the attacks came from computers located in the U.S., he said.

Monthly Home Sales Take Biggest Dip In 40 Yrs

Sales of previously occupied homes took the largest monthly drop in more than 40 years last month, sinking more dramatically than expected after lawmakers gave buyers additional time to use a tax credit.

The report reflects a sharp drop in demand after buyers stopped scrambling to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homeowners. It had been due to expire on Nov. 30. But Congress extended the deadline until April 30 and expanded it with a new $6,500 credit for existing homeowners who move.

December's sales fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million, from an unchanged pace of 6.54 million in November, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. Sales had been expected to fall by about 10 percent, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

The median sales price was $178,300, up 1.5 percent from a year earlier and the first yearly gain since August 2007. However, some of that increase could be due to a drop-off in purchases from first-time buyers who tend to buy less expensive homes.

Sales are now up 21 percent from the bottom a year ago, but down 25 percent from the peak more than four years ago.

The big question hanging over the housing market this spring is whether a tentative recovery will stumble after the government pulls back support. The Federal Reserve's $1.25 trillion program to push down mortgage rates is scheduled to expire at the end of March - a month before the newly extended tax credit runs out.

Last year, first-time buyers were the main driver of the housing market, but their presence is on the decline. They accounted for 43 percent of purchases in December, down from about half in November, the Realtors group said.

The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 7 percent to 3.3 million. That's a 7.2 month supply at the current sales pace, close to a healthy level of about 6 months.

Total sales for 2009 closed out the year at 5.16 million, up about 5 percent from a year earlier. That was the first annual sales gain since 2005. But prices fell dramatically last year, declining 12.4 percent to a median of $173,500, the largest decline since the Great Depression.

Though the results missed Wall Street's expectations, the Realtors' group says there are signs the market is finally stabilizing.

Many experts project home prices, which started to rise last summer, will fall again over the winter. That's because foreclosures make up a larger proportion of sales during the winter months, when fewer sellers choose to put their homes on the market.

Despite fears that home prices are starting to fall again, some analysts still believe the worst is over.