Gloom, But Not Doom

There's been a fair amount of hand-wringing since the nation's intelligence community surveyed the world of 2025: America losing dominance; China and India rising; fierce competition for water, food and energy; increased danger that terrorists will get a nuclear weapon.

That's all sobering. But the headlines from Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, published by the National Intelligence Council, are not the whole story.

President-elect Barack Obama is inheriting a world that is more complicated and more frightening than the one George W. Bush found in 2001. But while the trends may be apparent, the end results are not inevitable. Decisions Mr. Obama and other leaders make will matter more.

Take the assertion that the world is on a path to a multipolar system with China, India and Russia plus various businesses, tribes, religious groups - even criminal networks - vying for influence. Commentators have been predicting this dreaded multipolarity since the end of the cold war. And Vice President Dick Cheney and former Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz notably vowed to do everything they could to head it off - up to and including ensuring that close European allies never aspired to power and influence to rival the United States.

That arrogance and bullheadedness has instead weakened this country - creating new enemies and making it harder to win cooperation on important challenges, like the fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. If there is one clear lesson from the last eight years, it is that bullying other countries - and jockeying for zero-sum gains - doesn't work.

It also is the new conventional wisdom that this will be the century of China or India. But both face serious economic, demographic and other challenges - including the threat of terrorism, as the Mumbai attacks so tragically demonstrated. A relative decline in power also does not mean that the United States will not remain powerful. This country can and must continue to lead. There will be a particular premium on quick, nimble and farsighted decision-making and cooperation.

Giving rising powers a bigger role - in the United Nations Security Council, for instance - could help persuade them to take more responsibility for problems like terrorism, climate change, nonproliferation and energy security. The report suggests that Al Qaeda's indiscriminate use of violence and its failure to focus on problems like poverty and unemployment could diminish its appeal. But other extremist groups that curry favor with social programs will likely have more staying power. The next administration will have to counter their influence by promoting economic development in the Middle East as well as a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Warnings that terrorists will have an easier time acquiring nuclear, biological and advanced conventional weapons argue for serious new initiatives to control the spread of these horrifying weapons.

Mr. Obama appears to understand many of the challenges. So do some of the experts who are expected to be part of his administration, including Susan Rice, his choice for ambassador to the United Nations, and James Steinberg, reported to be on the short list for deputy secretary of state. As members of a group called the Phoenix Initiative, they spent several years formulating a concept of American strategic leadership for the 21st century.

Their report on the concept states that "leadership is not an entitlement; it has to be earned and sustained. Leadership that serves common goals is the best way to inspire the many different peoples of the world to make shared commitments." That is a good place to start.

MICHELLE