When Colin Powell endorsed now President-Elect Barack Obama two weeks ago, he did so, he said, because he found Obama a “transformational” figure, suggesting a significantly new way of looking at the U.S. role in the world.
If he is, how will we know?
Look for something different than simply standard Democratic policies returning to the forefront, says Yale presidential scholar Stephen Skowronek. To be considered a figure that truly transforms the country, Obama must get beyond simply reversing Bush Administration policy and instead change the way government itself is organized and operated and what it is committed to, Skowronek said in an e-mail interview.
Think Ronald Reagan, not John F. Kennedy.
“Reagan did not advance the conservative agenda very far but he did articulate a new standard of legitimacy and kept the conservative movement on the ideological offensive for decades afterward,” Skowronek said. Kennedy, on the other hand, “did not have a transformational effect on American politics.” In addition, look for a total re-examination of itself by the Republican Party, an “implosion,” Skowronek said. If the Republican Party’s ideology comes to be seen as the source of the nation’s problems and if Republicans fail to mount a forthright defense, that will be more evidence that Obama has transformed politics in the country.
Steven Schier, political science professor at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn., agrees that the potential of Obama is to make a shift on the magnitude of what the country went through when Reagan succeeded President Jimmy Carter in 1980. But he sets a different standard than Skowronek. Schier predicts the place to look for change quickly will be American foreign policy. “He would be a different ambassador to the world than George W. Bush,” Schier said. “He would symbolize a different approach to the world. I think you’ll see it right out of the gate with an overt approach to a wide variety of organizations in a number of countries.”
A major shift of that sort will be less obvious on domestic policies like energy and global warming, Schier thinks. Nonetheless, he said, “You’ll see a series of very public moves to seize the agenda both domestically and internationally." Even if there are mileposts along the way that indicate a “transformational” change in American politics, it won’t be truly visible except in the rear-view mirror.
Walter Dean Burnham, a University of Texas professor emeritus, wondered to the New York Times last week whether 2008 could turn out to yield a major realignment of U.S. politics, much as the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860 and Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1932. But he stopped short of predicting it. “It certainly smells like a critical election, but I can’t say for sure,” Burnham said. “It’s hard to speculate even about 2010, much less anything else.”
It must be noted that while the majority of Americans voted for Obama - which is more of an indictment of Bush policy and eight years of neo-Conservative non-sense (add to that war, the economy, jobs, etc. etc.) - it is NOT a mandate by the American people (mainly because the popular vote is close, hence NOT a landslide) that endorses endless social programs and a bigger federal government. It is anything but either. It is interesting to note that Socialism will play a role in the new administration mainly because of the leading Democrats in the House.
It will be interesting to see how much Obama will cave in to very powerful Democrats. His campaign warned us to not be let down too hard by all the expectations of what was promised.
I think that it is also worth noting that, thankfully or hopefully, Obama is not quite to the left as many suspected; maybe he's more in the center - we'll see. Nonetheless, the voters have spoken and Obama needs to hit the ground running - there will be no time for a honeymoon. What will be key is how Obama handles his first major news conference this week as president-elect.
Walter
If he is, how will we know?
Look for something different than simply standard Democratic policies returning to the forefront, says Yale presidential scholar Stephen Skowronek. To be considered a figure that truly transforms the country, Obama must get beyond simply reversing Bush Administration policy and instead change the way government itself is organized and operated and what it is committed to, Skowronek said in an e-mail interview.
Think Ronald Reagan, not John F. Kennedy.
“Reagan did not advance the conservative agenda very far but he did articulate a new standard of legitimacy and kept the conservative movement on the ideological offensive for decades afterward,” Skowronek said. Kennedy, on the other hand, “did not have a transformational effect on American politics.” In addition, look for a total re-examination of itself by the Republican Party, an “implosion,” Skowronek said. If the Republican Party’s ideology comes to be seen as the source of the nation’s problems and if Republicans fail to mount a forthright defense, that will be more evidence that Obama has transformed politics in the country.
The vote for Obama....
is more of an indictment of Bush
policy and eight years of neo-Conservative
non-sense (add to that war, the economy,
jobs, etc. etc.) than it is a mandate by the
American people that endorses endless
social programs and a bigger federal government.
is more of an indictment of Bush
policy and eight years of neo-Conservative
non-sense (add to that war, the economy,
jobs, etc. etc.) than it is a mandate by the
American people that endorses endless
social programs and a bigger federal government.
Steven Schier, political science professor at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn., agrees that the potential of Obama is to make a shift on the magnitude of what the country went through when Reagan succeeded President Jimmy Carter in 1980. But he sets a different standard than Skowronek. Schier predicts the place to look for change quickly will be American foreign policy. “He would be a different ambassador to the world than George W. Bush,” Schier said. “He would symbolize a different approach to the world. I think you’ll see it right out of the gate with an overt approach to a wide variety of organizations in a number of countries.”
A major shift of that sort will be less obvious on domestic policies like energy and global warming, Schier thinks. Nonetheless, he said, “You’ll see a series of very public moves to seize the agenda both domestically and internationally." Even if there are mileposts along the way that indicate a “transformational” change in American politics, it won’t be truly visible except in the rear-view mirror.
Walter Dean Burnham, a University of Texas professor emeritus, wondered to the New York Times last week whether 2008 could turn out to yield a major realignment of U.S. politics, much as the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860 and Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1932. But he stopped short of predicting it. “It certainly smells like a critical election, but I can’t say for sure,” Burnham said. “It’s hard to speculate even about 2010, much less anything else.”
It must be noted that while the majority of Americans voted for Obama - which is more of an indictment of Bush policy and eight years of neo-Conservative non-sense (add to that war, the economy, jobs, etc. etc.) - it is NOT a mandate by the American people (mainly because the popular vote is close, hence NOT a landslide) that endorses endless social programs and a bigger federal government. It is anything but either. It is interesting to note that Socialism will play a role in the new administration mainly because of the leading Democrats in the House.
It will be interesting to see how much Obama will cave in to very powerful Democrats. His campaign warned us to not be let down too hard by all the expectations of what was promised.
I think that it is also worth noting that, thankfully or hopefully, Obama is not quite to the left as many suspected; maybe he's more in the center - we'll see. Nonetheless, the voters have spoken and Obama needs to hit the ground running - there will be no time for a honeymoon. What will be key is how Obama handles his first major news conference this week as president-elect.
Walter
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